Simply Put: Why I'm So Damn Bearish

Short this market at 8000? Not a good advice as its now at 8700!!! The wall street doesn't really care about all this. Basic truth is market is going up, so follow the trend.

i have literally given up i have lost basically everything and see the end of prosperity as we have known it in this once great country. the progressives have taken over and will destroy the rest of the institutions that made this country special. our population as a whole has virtually no understanding of our history and the meaning of the founding documents. we are in the the final days of rome

remember Jimmy Carter? Novice President, elected out of spite and not reason. Energy Crisis and the birth of OPEC Birth of the Islamic Revolution, can you say - hostage crisis? The seeds of the housing crisis. The birth of the C.O.L.A. that is bankrupting Social Security. And best of all - STAGFLATION! a new word in the dictionary. History Does repeat itself. SO, the real question for today is - Who wants to be the next Ronald Reagan?

Cody, terrific piece. Finally, the unabashed truth. Simple, itemized, explained.

Cody, I watch you every night--very repective of your thoughts. However, think you are a little too weary to take sides in this blog re: Republicans/Democrats. Did Bush enact TARP, etc.? Sure, but he was lame-duck at the time and a transition into Obama's socialistic policies were in order. This new administration needs to stand on its own at this point, as it also controls Congress. There is an obvious difference in philosophy between true capitalism with the former regime and the "New Deal". Am trying to teach my children (7 and 12) that what they enjoyed in the past will not be available for a long time!! Thanks for your continued work.

Cody, I love this article. As always, you tell the truth! In addition, I watched Happy Hour yesterday. I just wanted to say that I too agree with you, Eric and Rebecca on the Hit or Miss question regarding the $4.5K tax incentive credit on cars. We need to look at the bigger picture; this "incentive" will also affect small businesses (i.e. repair / specialty shops that refurbish old cars, etc.). It appears what the message is: BIGGER GOVERNMENT AND ANTI-CAPITALISM! As an innovative entrepreneur, I will always find solutions to remain independent and help others. The unique thinkers will always be two steps ahead and survive crisis. WE THE PEOPLE must "KEEP FIGHTING THE GOOD FIGHT!" What we need to do as Americans is let our government officals feel the hurt that we are feeling. Since DC is a contributing factor to the high unemployment, let us vote them out of office and have them go through the same pain that millions of Americans are facing. I feel it is my patrioctic duty to ensure equality for all. I still love exercising my right for the republic! Keep up the good work on HH, SpokeUp.com, Twitter, etc.! P.S. I initially wrote this comment to the HH website address but for some reason, my email didn't go thru (must be a problem with my computer).

Yes, I am bearish too. As you pointed out, the only approach to fix the problem was to through money over the fence and watch it being carried away in a feeding frenzy. This is not sustainable and only fixes the hunger and not the cause. It is now evident the system can not correct itself without a complete reconstruction. Whether the market goes down or up is almost not important any longer. If inflation hits, stocks and housing prices should zoom. If deflation continues, stocks will drop. The factor missing today is whether the US can create enough jobs to continue the struggle. The US has alot of educated workers that are unable to get employment. Unless that gets fixed, the future does not look good for our country.

The Supreme Court of the United States, in their decision to lift the stay of the Chryslyer-Fiat deal, decided for the Rule of "O" versus the Rule of Law.

Cody, we face a far greater threat than the growing US and European economic disaster that no one seems alert to; it has become more obvious with each election that our political systems are virtually corrupted by powerful international interests that have no use for God or the Constitution. Our founding fathers unanimously put forth that document clearly acknowledging His sovereignty and guidance in the effort. Since our illustrious universities no longer put this connection together, we are set adrift to figure it out ourselves. Without question we are in a very bleak situation. If anyone still insists on putting money in the market, military defense stocks may be the best bet; war and civil unrest is right around the corner.

Cody, I totally appreciate your candor and insight; keep it coming! To add to your thoughts- should we trust the market observations of the movers & shakers on Wall Street that are now 'owned' by Mr. Obama and crew? I saw where Goldman Sachs, a recipient of $10,000,000,000 in TARP funds, was talking up the demand for oil worldwide which helps fuels the chase after a non-existant demand and leads to a very real increase in the price of oil and gasoline. Given Mr. Obama's strongarm tactics in enforcing his will on the auto companies, is it too much of a stretch to say that Goldman Sachs may 'enhance' their forecasts in order to advance Washington's agenda? In this case, Mr. Obama wants higher oil and gas prices so that people will buy the 'green' cars that Government Motors will now make. Just wondering..........

The most dangerous creature on the planet is a " Well Intentioned True Believer" in search of political power. The latest such creature, in a long and infamous line of them, is Obama. Guard yourself for true.

[...] Random Feed wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptYou just can’t separate politics from the stock market today. All the covert corporate welfare and overt social welfare policies that our economy used to be able to overcome are now much too big and stark in their premise that I find myself writing about politics and policies even when I start off on what I mean to be a totally market-focused blog post. It didn’t use to be like this. From October 2002 to October 2007, I was building and running an eponymous hedge fund that I founded. I wrot [...]

[...] News Sources wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptYou just can’t separate politics from the stock market today. All the covert corporate welfare and overt social welfare policies that our economy used to be able to overcome are now much too big and stark in their premise that I find myself writing about politics and policies even when I start off on what I mean to be a totally market-focused blog post. It didn’t use to be like this. From October 2002 to October 2007, I was building and running an eponymous hedge fund that I founded. I wrot [...]

Well Put, funny how the "sunshine boys", as i like to call them, never seem to have any data to back up their jubilence. Wait until mid August when they figure out that they dont have enough money set aside for this thing. The TARP head Warren was on the "sunshine" network EARLY this morning, saying that the stress tests need to be redone, since they have blown right through the original "worst case" scenario of an unemployment rate at 8%. I am back to shorting the banks into the ground again, gotta love the high lev shorts!! Looks like im gonna get PAID....... AGAIN!! Shortie..

Cody Willard for president!!!!!

The following gives me hope: "The uniform, constant and uninterrupted effort of every man to better his condition, the principle from which public and national, as well as private opulence is originally derived, is frequently powerful enough to maintain the natural progress of things toward improvement, in spite both of the extravagance of government, and of the greatest errors of administration. Like the unknown principle of animal life, it frequently restores health and vigor to the constitution, in spite, not only of the disease, but of the absurd prescriptions of the doctor." - Adam Smith from Wealth of Nations. While I completely agree with your political viewpoints, I don't see how you can be overly bearish in the short term (1-2 years). While all of the money being spent by the government is ludicrous, over the short term that money has kick-started the flow of money throughout the economy again. It is artificial movement, but it is moving. I, too, can't wait until the day when we can get rid of all of those who are currently in office. I hope that we can set some term limits and remove the pensions and other high pay that have become associated with the jobs in our nation's capital. I hope that by doing that we can return to having our representatives truly be public servants and not highly paid public employees (who get to set their own standards of pay and work?). Keep up the push on the current regime, but don't fail to see or mention the good.

Just wait until October when Bernanke can't purchase Bonds (this QE announcement in March goes until October) and the rates skyrocket.. what happens to ARM mortgages ?? What happens to Govt financial balance sheets ?? Will anybody even want to do re-fi's ?? Who would be able to borrow to expand their businesses ?? If Bernanke simply prints (buys) more, fear of inflation raises rates and defeats the whole reason to do it to begin with. Tax hikes and/or spending cuts will do it.. but will Obama do any of that this year.. and if so, how does the NYSE react ?? Fed Fund rates hike perhaps.. but how does NYSE react ?? In short, there's no way out except to slash spending.. and Obama will never do it. Look for another major meltdown before next spring.

Yet in the process of running the U.S. like a banana republic, the dollar is fast becoming a banana currency, worth only a quarter of its value earlier this decade relative to an ounce of gold. So this 8700 market is priced in devalued dollars, which will become more devalued. The ongoing meltdown of the currency is being priced into hard assets, including stocks and commodities, especially those that are energy-related. When you sell a stock or any capital asset, you receive dollars for it. I am becoming increasingly leery of owning dollars. To the extent others share this mentality, it is supporting the market to an extent.

Cody, You are right in your analysis of why one should be bearish. But there is far more to your story than you have outlined. Some of the other factors (besides what you have listed) include the possibility of a hidden tax to consumers via Cap and Trade. There is also the punishing tax code for individuals and corporation. We have villianized entreprenuers and the group that desires to excel. We are rewarding behavior that should be punished. The most dangerous thing our government is doing is creating a generation of people unable to think and reason objectively and inteligently. They depend more and more upon Big Brother for their security and the gov. is all too ready to increase their power by obliging. Keep up the noice. Some people have the gift of intuition and see things far sooner than others. While that is a painful gift to have sometime it is needed and take back bone to use. Lhuisenga

Well said, Cody.