The Cody Word
  • February 6, 2009 11:58 AM EST by Cody Willard

    Weekend Vittles: Viewers to Government - Leave Us Alone!, Geithner's Owned By the Banks, and Why I'm Bearish...Still and Again

    You gotta have it baby, You can't do without
    When you get that feeling, You gotta sock'em out
    Put that mike in my hand, And let me kick out the jam
    Yes ! Kick out the jams, I want to kick' em out -- MC5

    Here's what I'll be coughing up in my mind this weekend, as I heal up from this pneumonia/bronchitis thing that hit me this week:

    * This emailer just about nails it:

    Cody,All I know is that for over 20 years my husband and I have operated a successful small business, saved our money, and lived modestly. Last fall before TARP we ran 2 shifts, 6 days a week. Now we are laying peple off for the first time in our operation, scared to death, and too old to start over. I’m against this stimulus plan, and wish the government would stop making everything worse for me and my employees. If government wants to reduce unemployment then they should think about what job producers/creators (such as small business)need, ie: lower corporate tax, payroll tax, worker comp rates, and health insurance competition.

    Hope we can all get thru this!

    From Stop The Stimulus: Don’t Let The Republican/Democrat Regime Confiscate A Trillion Dollars for Their Cronies!, 2009/02/05 at 10:09 PM

    * I've struggled through the NYTimes just about every morning for the last thirteen years since I moved to NYC (true story -- it's impossible to get a print edition of either the NY Times or the WSJ anywhere within 70 miles of Ruidoso. Roswell has 'em though.). I mean, the way both the NY Times (and the WSJ for that matter too) frame their articles and topics to their own political agenda as all mainstream media do has had me playing a game I call "Less than 50%", which means less than 50% of the articles in the paper make any sense to me whatsoever and usually actually make me angry.

    Today, the NYTimes might have pushed me too far. Read this:

    Japan’s Big-Works Stimulus Is Lesson

    Shiho Fukada for The New York Times

    The soaring Marine Bridge in Hamada, Japan, built as a public works project, was almost devoid of traffic on a recent morning.

    Published: February 5, 2009

    "HAMADA, Japan — The Hamada Marine Bridge soars majestically over this small fishing harbor, so much larger than the squid boats anchored below that it seems out of place..."

    The article goes on to explain in detail how trillions of dollars of clearly wasteful public spending on cronyized projects for well-connected political supporters in the name of "stimulating" Japan's economy over the last decade had done NOTHING TO HELP and clearly continues to help cause the ongoing economic malaise in that country...

    But then the NYTimes summarizes all that by all of a sudden stating with no explanation at all:

    "In a nutshell, Japan’s experience suggests that infrastructure spending, while a blunt instrument, can help revive a developed economy, say many economists and one very important American official: Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, who was a young financial attaché in Japan during the collapse and subsequent doldrums. One lesson Mr. Geithner has said he took away from that experience is that spending must come in quick, massive doses, and be continued until recovery takes firm root."

    Geithner is unethical and completely owned by the banking syndicate he's supposed to be "fixing". He will simply redistribute all the money he can in every way he can from you to his cronies and his politicians in the Republican/Democrat regime and tell you that it's for your own good.

    It's not.

    Let's get rid of these people and their horribly destructive economic policies and get back to private property laws, profit-driven marketplaces, and free-will. That's the only thing that will get us back to a bull market.

    * This downturn IS different than the others you and I have experienced in our lives. First off, my whole conscious life has been spent in an economy that's basically been steadily growing for 25 or 30 years. The spoiled generation of the babyboomers and the idiot Ivy Leaguers they listen to are convinced that we should use central planning in a futile attempt to keep that impossible streak of economic growth going uninterrupted.

    But even that wouldn't matter much in the grand scheme of the markets and the economy if we simply enforced contract laws and held people accountable for their own losses and business mistakes. Indeed, though the socialist Republican/Democrat regime in power is just playing the same kind of redistribution of wealth from you to their cronies that they have been for the last 70 years or so, it's the magnitude of the redistribution that's going to kill this economy and market.

    If the stimulus package passes anywhere more than $100 billion or so, the DJIA is likely headed to 6,000. I want to be bullish. But I ain't. Not without profit-motive in the marketplace. And there's very little profit-motive left as it's all been squeezed out by these wealth-redistributors in the Republican/Democrat regime.

    * Indeed, I'm also suggesting to my RevolutioNewsletter.com subscribers that they take profits on even the long-term investments that we've laid out for them since launching in late November. We've been very selective in picking names, but the five names including RIMM, we've recommended are all up double digits with an average gain of about 30%. Yeah, since November. We've also named stocks to avoid for our subscribers and they are actually down by an average of 22%. We're offering a half-price "Depression Special" if you sign up now.

    * It's time for the first Annual April Fool's Day SpokeUp.com "Be Funny and Make a Point -- Let's Be Heard!" User-Generated Content Contest.

    Three categories --

    • Best YouTube Commercial for SpokeUp.com.
    • Best Slogan for a SpokeUp.com Baseball Cap
    • Best Graphic for a SpokeUp.com T-Shirt

    We'll be giving away a total of nine prizes -- three in each category:

    • Three first prize winners will get a 32 Gig iPod Touch (with the SpokeUp.com slogan of their choice) and a SpokeUp.com Hoodie (that I'm happy to autograph, btw, though I feel strange offering to do so).
    • Three second prize winners will get a SpokeUp.com HD Flip Camcorder and a SpokeUp.com Hoodie (that I'm happy to autograph, btw, though I again feel strange offering to do so.)
    • And three third prize winners will get that SpokeUp.com Hoodie (I'm always happy to sign anything you guys would ever want me to, frankly though at this point I do feel ridiculous offering it.)

    Entries are due by March 15, but you can and should start submitting your entries to the community and/or me anytime. I'll be happy to provide feedback. I'm also happy to make cameos or whatever you want if we can figure out a way to make it happen logistically.

    You can submit as many entries as you want.

    We'll hold a vote among SpokeUp.com members in the last week of March to choose the winners and we'll simply give the top three vote-getters in each category the respective prize.

    Let's be heard!

    * Even gold, which I do think is headed to $2000 over the next couple years is probably ripe for a pullback right now. I mean, when you've got Ed McMahon teaming up with MC Hammer to solicit you to send them your gold after seeing the dude from Law & Order SVU tell you that "gold is the right investment now" several times an hour on every financial TV news station...well, I'd wait for the next pullback to buy any gold.

    * All my bearishness aside, I wouldn't short this market outright. Two main reasons for that. I know a lot of guys who were rightly bearish throughout this 40% decline in the stock market over the last year or so. I'd say maybe 1 in 10 of those guys are actually up over that time. Shorting is tough, even when you're right. And the second reason is one of following the playbook. I've been saying that we're likely caught in a range of about 7000 to 9500 on the DJIA for the next two years or so. I'm starting to move that target down because of the politicians incessant confiscation of our money to about 6000 to 8500. But I wouldn't bother to draw any of those numbers themselves in the sand. No, just be patient. Get bullish around 7000 and get insanely bullish if we get to 6000.

    * And with that, I'll thank you for reading and I'm going to run home and take a nap and some antibiotics and even my last dose of 'roids to kick this sickness out. Kick out the jams indeed!

Shawn

Cody, what's your take on this? I'm a rookie, but I don't see it. http://www.cnbc.com/id/29059746

February 6, 2009 at 9:02 pm

about this blog

  • Cody Willard is an anchor on the FOX Business Network. Willard is also the principal of an investment management company. He was a long-time featured columnist for the Financial Times and TheStreet.com as well as a regular featured economist and stock picker on CNBC's ''Kudlow & Company."

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