The Big 3: Beatings Will Continue, Peak Earnings, and Big Company Favoritism

1. The Beatings Will Continue…

2. The Next Peak Earnings?

3. I’m Hurt by Big Company Favoritism

Here’s what I was carving up in my own pumpkin today:

1. Real headlines today: “U.S. Property-Casualty Insurers Won't Seek Government Capital”. “Trichet Says ECB Cut `Possible' Next Week as Market Crisis Damps Inflation”. “Capital One, KeyCorp Among 18 Banks Receiving $35 Billion in U.S. Funding.” Stocks won’t go up until earnings improve and earnings won’t improve until the government lets the losses work through the system.

2. Broadcom sells into lots of high tech industries from cell phones to computers and the company’s trading at 8x this year’s projected cash flows. The real question for any investor is how long it’ll take to get back to 2008 earnings. 2011 is best case scenario, IMHO, though the market will sustainably bounce before the earnings do.

3. I have Social Network for the New American Revolution that I’m about to turn on in the next few weeks (stay tuned!)…of course, my access to capital’s been constricted during this confidence-crisis and that hurts. You know what hurts worse? That the government’s propping up my competitors at GE and Time Warner by lending them money in the commercial paper markets.