The Cody Word
  • October 13, 2008 12:56 PM EDT by Cody Willard

    How Will The Market Break My Heart The Next Time The Market Breaks My Heart?

    When your lonely heart breaks
    Don't sit counting your mistakes
    Don't be waiting for love to come back
    Don't be wastin' time
    Don't be lost in crime
    When your lonely heart breaks -- Neil Young

    Well, we're above 9,000 again.  We're up 8% plus from Friday morning's crash's crash.  And as I wrote Friday morning when  the markets were below 8300 --

    "Of course, you’ll want to sell any major rallies — say if we get above 9,000 anytime before year end.  The pain of lower earnings estimates and smaller multiples for stocks are still going to keep us lower rather than higher in the markets, no matter what the government does to (try to) prop things up."

    One of the most important qualities of a good money manager is to follow the playbook when it works out for you.  The playbook, as all these virtuous cycles have turned vicious and as the ramifications of the glut of the capital turning to shortage of capital work their way through our economies and markets, does indeed dictate selling all rallies.

    Fact is, we're likely to gyrate wildly in these stock markets.  Over the next six months, we're likely to see the DJIA trading anywhere between 7,000 and 10,500. Volatility will beget more volatility.

    I mentioned a few weeks ago that shorting any highly-levered balance sheet was likely to be a good no-brainer trade as access to capital has disappeared.  That didn't take long to play out and on Friday I started talking about buying strong balance sheets and (relative to Treasuries, that's for sure) high yields like Microsoft at $21.  That's probably not a bad way to pair up trades in this market -- buy strong balance sheets and short ugly ones.

    I keep reminding people that "The Bottom" won't be a specific point that you have to time and catch.  It'll be a long-process and if you've got a time-horizon of five years or more, then there's going to be a lot of opportunities and options over the next few months.

    You sure don't have to chase this rally.  And most importantly -- if you were crying in your Cheerios last Friday morning when the DJIA was at 8000 then you sure as heck need to use this rally to sell a little bit so you can rest easier if and when the market tanks again.

    As I used to ask when I ran money -- "How will the market break my heart the next time it breaks my heart?"

    PS.  Click here to sign up for my monthly market newsletter, The Cody Report -- the new edition with new stock picks comes out this week.

HM2PAC

Cody, Keep on telling it like it is. Your view point may not be popular, but I believe it is spot on. Remember, the thing they will kill you for the quickest is telling the truth.

October 14, 2008 at 2:29 pm

Scotty

Paying for the bailout will create an already friendly business environment. Maybe the companies of the world will setup shop here, forget profit, the goal can be to pay more taxes. It's always fun to trade tax dollars for profit. A trillion dollars that needs to be paid back with a week US dollar, now that's an attractive business environment. Trump likes the move. Can't imagine high end real estate will do well in the next three years. Especially when the government establishes creative ways to tax you on your purchase. Sorry Donald can't purchase your property, I have to pay back a trillion dollar loan made on my behalf. When will we reach a taxation wall? Federal, State, Local, it's already impossible to breakeven here at this small business in Ohio.

October 14, 2008 at 2:25 pm

Shawn

We are being lulled into a false sense of security. Jobs lost overseas will never come back. In fact we will lose more jobs as companies struggle to meeet wall street expectations.This will be the death of America. GM and Ford will close plants and how long do you think Boeing will be held hostage by their machinists before they ship those jobs out. Everyone wants MORE,MORE,MORE and never satisfied. Until attitudes change, bleaker times are ahead.

October 14, 2008 at 10:49 am

S.C.Roe

Ian Protectionism by preventing jobs going to China IS Socialism. Free-Markets rely on the free flow of Capital which NEEDS Government regulation and Legal Control and if that slips you end up with the Credit Markets freezing up which prevents Capitalism. Capitalisms best hope is no Protectionism (and US Job Losses)coupled with a strict Regulatory Framework on Banks. The alternative will be a 'flight to quality' I.e World Money , which until recently kept the US afloat, heading for European Markets. Make no mistake what happened in the last month came directly from Reganomics/Thatcherism and NeoCon Philosophy. It was like watching a slo-mo car crash. Remove regulations on banking and give bonuses for risk-taking and sooner or later risk will be underestimated. 1000 successes can be undermined by one mistake.

October 14, 2008 at 3:53 am

Ian Shepherd

Thanks for seeing the new fed policy for what it is (Socialist ideals). Thanks for informing America. I want America back, stop spending, get the jobs back from China, get America to work.

October 14, 2008 at 12:01 am

Lemmy's Ghost

We will be paying for this long after the banks have been made whole again. It takes 40 bucks to fill two grocery bags today. My mom used to fill a 1972 Impala trunk with groceries for the same amount. You seem to find wisdom in music lyrics. Here's one that always makes me grin: Motorhead Lyrics to Just 'Cos You Got The Power : You might be a financial wizard, With a sack of loot, All I see is a slimy lizard, With an expensive suit, Go on and run your corporation, Go and kiss some ass, You might buy half of the nation, But you can't buy class You bastards think it's funny, Lyin' and thieving all your life, Think all there is is money, Got your future strapped up tight, Just 'Cos You Got The Power, That don't mean you got the right You can take my fingers babe, You can take my eyes, You can take my past and future, It won't make you wise, You can have me thrown in jail, You can steal my booze, You can even read my mail, Step on my blue suede shoes, You bastards must be clever, Got it mapped out in black and whit, But don't forget you'll never, Get a dog to walk upright, Just 'Cos You Got The Power, That don't mean you got the right Go on out make another deal, Feed your big fat face, Go on out and cop a feel, Get on somebody's case, You surely would be satisfied, If you could have it all, But time ain't on your side, You're going to the wall You think that life's all dollars, Greed and lust and spite, But I wasn't born to follow, Like to get my sleep at night, Just 'Cos You Got The Power, That don't mean you got the right

October 13, 2008 at 6:50 pm

Steve

All I have to say is that the govenment needs to get out of trying to socialize capitalism. Their attempt to socialize our markets is just one step closer to a socialist government. What will be next the government will want to control? They already control far to much of our lives. Government steps in and artificially causes the market to go up and also artificially increases the cost of basic necessities such as food and fuel. Get out of our lives government.

October 13, 2008 at 6:32 pm

Russell

Your comments make them uncomfortable because you are right on money. Capitalism as we knew it is gone. How do you play a game if the rules don't exist anymore? I guess the long term play is over except for those investors that are willing to get behind those large enough or corrupt enough to influence the bureaucrats. Of course this will only perpetuate the corruption further. Atlas Shrugged anyone?

October 13, 2008 at 5:38 pm

James

Directive 10-289 is not too far away, three years tops.

October 13, 2008 at 5:05 pm

Alex

The J, Yes, just stop trying under the socialist environment. Make sure you put it all in a savings account until Cody tells you capitalism has returned.

October 13, 2008 at 4:41 pm

Scotty

I don't know about anyone else but I feel like an idiot forecasting this market. There is no direction to be given here. One of the greatest American institutions is ruined. Nothing in this market is real, chart watchers, number speculators, "the DJ is going to do this and that," bla, bla, bla. Problem is they're using old obselete forecasting that was based on a pre-government market. From a board of directors standpoint, how do you measure performance from this market, how do you benchmark?" What happens in the next board meeting after this garbage, since a profit and loss model isn't the benchmark for perfomance. I almost forgot, "loss" doesn't exist anymore because you get the bailout. I love how the banks are so embarrased to lay claim to the money, you dirty thieves. I really want to trade a market that is based on who is on the tv next. It's a joke of a market now. Traders on the floor seem lost, really lost, hence the statement, "we're going to just follow the credit flow for the time being." Nice work government. I watched people on Fox Business like Eric who actually supported this. Thanks for supporting the joke market. People like Eric talk on television about how this was a good thing while they wait it out. You're a joke, bro. "I really like a gold play here." You're a big joke bro. Going to gold, now that's a bailout supporter. I hope this goes to 2,000, we need people to really become angry. I'm out until the government is out, and that unfortunatley may be never. Anyone for starting our own currency and market?

October 13, 2008 at 4:26 pm

The J

So thanks to this vicious turn on the street we let the govt become the largest morgage holder in the world, we are ok with nationalizing the banking industry and because everyone is mad at the current administration we are willing to elect a guy in Obama that told people at at rally yesterday that the idea of his tax plan is to "spread the wealth around". We folded on capitalism so my question for you Cody is; How do we make money in a socialist environment or do we stop trying since they are going to just give it to someone else anyway?

October 13, 2008 at 3:52 pm

Robert

Good advice to sell on rallies if you are still in the market. If the Fed pulls this off, I think they will begin in earnest to try and manage a recession, perhaps a deep one, in order to deflate and take back as much of the new money they are going to inject into the system as possible. If they do not, and credit starts flowing again, even on a more responsible level, inflation will kick in and rage like a California wildfire. Neither the central bankers nor the politicians would fare very well if hyper-inflation takes hold. I personally do not think they can manage an extended deflation/recession and simultaneously take hundreds of billions of the new money out of the system, but I think they will try. If so, bargains in the stock market (that are based upon future earnings expectations) will be scarce . Maybe a government subsidized solar panel manufacturer would qualify, or perhaps we could sell stock in PBS or the Ad Council. Isn't Marxism grand.

October 13, 2008 at 3:04 pm

Brian Watson

Hey Cody, can you tell me how much the Bailout of the banks that is being considered, I heard that it is going to cost 1.8 TRILLION dollars? Also, where are we getting the money to fund another 150 billion dollar stimulus package?? We need to get a new government that isn't SOCIALIST, I fear for all of my friends and family.

October 13, 2008 at 2:06 pm

Frank Cardinali

Cody, you and Cavuto are the only ones make any sense to me. I watch the others for the legs :)

October 13, 2008 at 1:36 pm

about this blog

  • Cody Willard is an anchor on the FOX Business Network. Willard is also the principal of an investment management company. He was a long-time featured columnist for the Financial Times and TheStreet.com as well as a regular featured economist and stock picker on CNBC's ''Kudlow & Company."

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