No Brainer Trade: Short Dubai in August 2008

Dubai is a complex one to figure, i can imagine a short term decline in real estate based on fears of the impact of oil price decline, i believe this is already occurring, and the main real estate company has had a share price decline of 33% But the real estate decline is very temporary in my view for two reasons, first, Dubai does not have much oil, their boom is based on a diverse ecconomy including massive foreign investments, secondly oil will not go lower that $100 a barrel so even oil based investment will remain strong. Finally, the anomaly in oil pricing is the recent "Correction". I don't believe we have a top in oil, and i don't think we have a bottom in the US dollar since the US housing market is still in crisis, and the dollar continues to be diluted with massive borrowing funding the US war. As the US dollar continues to decline, they UAE Dirham will also decline, and thus, the real estate prices will continue to grow just to make up for inflation. If i had to make a bet, i would bet on Dubai prices going up on the long term, and i may buy some real estate so my money will be where my mouth is, but first i wish to look at a potentially better opportunity in Lebanon. I'm planning to return to Dubai in 3 months, and i was their just one month ago, so im not just a guy making comment about what he has no clue about. And i can honestly say, Dubai can make countries like my home land of Australia look backwards, their is no comparison in scale and expense. But then again, the city of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia seems far more modern than Sydneys CBD.

Dear John Wallace, I have updated your summary according to fact. Otherwise your summary would be like Hank Greenburg article telling us 'I told you so' after a dangerous stock finally corrects 50% after a seven bagger. Not buying early: a. Internet Stocks b. Real estate in Telluride c. US Real Estate d. Gold e. Dubai real estate Summary: Timing and price are crucial.

Anyone know how you would go about shorting Dubai if one was inclined to believe this article? Just curious...

What a baseless Wild A** Guess. Pure hype/speculation.

Hey Umer, you had me with you until the third world comment. i'm sure Dubai is a nice place, but to build a city of the future on oil? In the middle east? I'm sure it is a nice place, and i wouldn't mind a visit myself, but i'm not sure it's going rank itself among the world's great places. Oh well, good luck!! Thanks Cody.

Typical remark from some one who has NO idea about the Dubai market !! So you think you can understand it sitting in NYC !! (I would like to know how you go about shorting Dubai in any case ???) Dubai is an Oasis in the whole middle east and sub continent. It is one of the few modern cities with a great combination of East and West, it is the first city to enjoy fruits of Globalisation because it was poised to do so. What a lot of people dont realise that its a small place, certainly there is a lot of hype, but guess what the deamnd far outstrips the supply!! simply as there is no other place in the region. When i lived there we thought OH No! gulf war will ruin the economy, but guess what all the wealthy Iraqi's and Iranians and Indians and Pakistanis and every one else in the region wants a piece of it. YOU in America are a latecomer, most people in the US hadnt even heard of Dubai 5 years ago !! If the global economy slows, certainly growth in Dubai might slow but long term, quality of life there makes the US seem like the third world !! as long as there is termoil, poverty, oil in that region Dubai will continue to GROW !! Forget about the media, visit and decide for yourself!!

A short history of mistakes: I can't lose with --a. Internet Stocks b. Real estate in Telluride c. US Real Estate d. Gold e. Dubai real estate Absolutely. By the time the media is singing the praises of an investment it is a sure sign that market is past peak.