The Big 3: Merrill, Oil, and Olympic Toil

1.  Short Merrill When 10% = 100%
2.  Oil Won’t Go Straight Down
3.  Olympic Commercials for Commies

Here’s what my brain was winning gold medals for today:

1.  Two weeks ago, Merrill’s stock had about a billion shares outstanding and was at $24 – a $24 billion market cap.  The stock has gone up about 10%, $2 per share since then…but Merrill issued half a billion shares, which means it’s market cap has almost doubled to $40 per share.   You really think diluting shareholders by 50% should make this stock double?  I don’t and I’d be shorting Merrill.

2.  Speaking of two weeks ago – I’ve had one too many guys who thought I was on crack saying oil was bubbled two weeks ago who suddenly find themselves “bearish on oil”.  I fully expect oil to be below $50 a share by the end of 2010…but that don’t mean that it won’t spike back to $130 or more before we get there.  Fade the faders who now wanna fade the oil move.

3.  I’m officially boycotting these Olympics.  If not only because I’m at war with the people who spent billions to broadcast them to you, but mainly because my brain can’t wrap around the irony of these endlessly commercial yet Communist games.