The Cody Word
  • July 22, 2008 12:02 PM EDT by Cody Willard

    Flip It: People Who Invest in Oil in 2008 Are Dumber Than You

    Fate comes a-knockin
    Doors start lockin
    Your old time connection
    Change your direction
    You aint gonna change it
    Cant rearrange it
    Cant stand the pain
    When its all the same to you, my friend,

    It's the same old story, same old song and dance, my friend. -- Aerosmith

    I know, I know, I know -- oil's going to $1000 and will never see $30 again. This time it's different. Really. 150 years of oil cycling up and then down, but this time it's going to be different. We're running out. China and India have growing demand, didn't you hear!

    Really, it's not a bubble. It's a no-brainer to invest in oil and energy in 2008, as this spam email that got through my gmail spam filter suggests:

    Or then again...

    as I told Altucher over the weekend, I can't fathom a scenario in which people who are investing in oil and energy in 2008 are going to make big money in the next few years. They missed the move from $20 to $150. And now they'll catch the move from $150 to $30. Blame the speculators on the way up. And then you all will forget about them when they lose all their money and capitulate on the way down. Don't be an oil speculator -- not because it's bad for the economy or causing inflation (it's not and it doesn't), but because you'll likely lose your ass.

    Seriously, same old song and dance indeed. Don't get burned by being aggressive in energy investments in 2008.

David Merkel

I like the misspelling of "Mobil" in the ad. Really lowers the credibility. I'm finally underweight energy for the first time in seven years. Can't leave entirely, though...

July 22, 2008 at 12:40 pm

Jerry Johnson

And then again, this might be the latest short-lived pull-back before oil shoots up to $200.

July 22, 2008 at 2:48 pm

Justin

I dunno. I think oil is due for a correction, but I'm a buyer if it drops below $120. You ought to get good ole Jimmy Rogers back on to see what he has to say. As long as the dollar is in trouble (I belive the USD is a fatally flawed currency), I'll continue buying hard assets with them.

July 22, 2008 at 2:57 pm

jag

We American are at present living with the prospect of paying more than $5 a Gallon for gas. It has turned our mode of life upside down. We at house housedna.com are working to bring to life, the old joy of driving, by paying 40 cents a gallon of gas. It will be a pleasure going around in your car for grocery buying, long distance travel, neighborhood driving and vacationing, etc. We have a ready solution, with our concept of plug-in-electric station. It is to distribute electric power, to electric or hybrid cars, all with a station consisting of an 110V plug-in just outside ones house, in the parking lots of café or other establishments frequented by people. HouseDNA has built up first plug-in-station business platform. This can calculate the amount the electricity supplier is entitled to receive from the customer. This is based on the size of the car, and service time. The small payment transactions can be done through our secure website. All one needs is to have our website homepage. In terms of travel cost it is just equivalent to 40 cents a gallon. The spread of plug-in-electric stations will induce people to go for electric or partially electric (hybrid) cars. Besides it is environment friendly. The call of the day is to look for alternate and cheaper energy supply source. One day our success will make people look toward to other cheaper sources of energy for their cars.

July 24, 2008 at 1:00 am

jstrat

I doubt we will see oil below 100 again for a majority of reasons. It takes energy to make energy im afraid, and even a boost in crude production will lead to a boost in crude consumption. Not to mention most of the easily accessible oil fields have been taped and will soon suffer from the law of Hubert's peak. The remaining ones remained untapped bc they have been deemed to costly to develop. The cost to develop them wont change what will change is the profit margins from developing them as oil becomes more and more in demand. The change in cost of oil production will shift the normalized margins for oil higher, there is just no way around it. Look for oil to give back alot of it's recent gains but dont expect oil in the mid double digits anytime soon. I dont think this is the "GREAT ENERGY CRISIS" most of these speculating prophets have been running around telling us is coming. What this is, is a lesson. We need to move towards renewable energy and fast if we want to continue to enjoy a healthy and prosperous world economy. If we do not then it is really only a matter of time till the energy crisis catches us unaware and we will see world economics divulge into abyss that very few people think is possible.

July 24, 2008 at 2:12 am

jstrat

Secondly, i see very little is this "experts column" to say that he knows anything about oil at all. He is running with the crowd and it's a shame that fox lets him get away with it. Most of oils recent gains have been on speculation from a poor International political economy and a weakening dollar. But for this "Expert" to claim that a 120 dollar jump is just a fad hahahahaha man i wish i had this guys job apparently he can say anything and get payed for it.

July 24, 2008 at 2:18 am

Dana Swan

Cody, You are right that oil speculation drove the oil prices so quickly. But the worldwide oil demand IS growing faster that the supply CAN grow. The governments of the world new this was coming (or should have known) and yet they DECIDED not to start the long process of finding and producing more oil volume to match the coming future needs. Could it be that the oil companies paid the right people to sit on their hands so the price would skyrocket? Whatever the cause, the result is that the USA has been using 25% of the world's commodities with 5% of the world's population since WWII. Now the rest of the world is catching up to the USA and we will need to share. We will all have to do MORE with LESS and pay more for it....

July 24, 2008 at 11:46 am

Geoff

I don't agree that there is an oil shortage.. There are just too few large players in the game.. We have billions of barrels of crude and trillions of cu ft of natgas in the USA.. Congress is not prodding the current producers to work harder in the existing fields, and they are not opening up new leases for new players.. That is protectionism for Big Oil.. Even a dumb-ass Congressman should be able to see the consumers getting shafted.. New drilling and refining technologies have made the industry very clean.. There is no reason not to drill, KEEP THE PRODUCT IN THE USA, and stabilize prices.. New energy technologies and alternative fuels are not ready, so we need to use more oil until until they are ready and become competitive...

July 25, 2008 at 10:21 am

about this blog

  • Cody Willard is an anchor on the FOX Business Network. Willard is also the principal of an investment management company. He was a long-time featured columnist for the Financial Times and TheStreet.com as well as a regular featured economist and stock picker on CNBC's ''Kudlow & Company."

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